Crypto prices slipped on Wednesday as banking worries persisted and some analysts suggested stocks could be overvalued.
Bitcoin was trading at around $24,400 by 12:30 p.m. EDT, down about 1.3% over the past few hours, according to TradingView data. Ether dipped about 2% to $1,650.
Taking a beat?
“U.S. markets are beginning to price a higher probability of a Fed pause as sentiment deteriorates,” the GSR analysts said, adding that “lower-than-expected retail sales and PPI releases provide increased flexibility for the Fed to potentially pause at next week’s FOMC.”
The Fed will announce its latest interest rate decision a week from today, with the market now pricing in a near 58% probability of a pause.
FedWatch target rate probabilities
FedWatch, the CME’s tool, analyzes the probability of changes to the Fed rate using 30-Day Fed Funds futures pricing data, now shows a 57.9% probability of a pause — up from about 30% yesterday.
Rule of 20
Charles Schwab’s chief investment strategist, Liz Ann Sonders, says the Rule of 20 suggests stocks might be overvalued.
S&P 500 P/E + US CPI YoY
The rule says if the S&P 500 price-earnings ratio and CPI year-on-year equal 20, markets may be fairly valued.
The S&P 500 P/E is currently around 20.65, according to Multpl data, while year-on-year inflation came in at 6% in February — suggesting markets are overvalued.